Opinion polls for rulers

Opinion polls prove attractive only at certain times of the political life: main events, electoral campaigns, confrontations, controversies and scandals. They become attractive when the temperature in the public arena grows high, when significant issues are at stake.
Otherwise, such instruments are useful at calm times too. At such times parties' experts proceed to analyses and plan strategies on grounds of estimated percentages. Still it doesn't stir public and media interest.
But why are these times for talking about opinion polls ? What is the issue now, in a summer bringing the heat wave, the drought and the global heating to the foreground ? There is enough time left till the next elections. It is the elections for MEPs, which doesn't seem to make spirits really hot.
Nevertheless, the present is more interesting than the summer holiday makes visible. A few months have elapsed since the referendum on the suspension of President Basescu. The passion faded away. And the confrontation between the head of state and the Democrat Party he comes from on the one hand, and the government together with the opposition on the other hand, has had more hot times, all of them unfavorable to Basescu: the pension law promoted by the Liberals and deadlocked for some time by the President, the Bordei Park controversy, the indifference of Adriean Videanu, a mayor of Bucharest, who was on a leave while the city was under the 'red code'. The elections for seats in Strasbourg are approaching. Local elections are due next summer. Then there follow the parliamentary elections and the presidential ones in 2009. Basescu has been dominating this electoral cycle and the referendum seems to have confirmed that his separation from the Liberals, the allies who have supported him to become a President, looks like a profitable decision. There has been much comment proving this success deceitful, since it was only a third of the electors who voted for Basescu. And all they did was choose a continuation of his mandate, without making an electoral option. But the prevailing general perception is that Basescu was a triumphant winner and that his domination is going on, hence the Democrats' score reaching close to 50% in polls.
Given the recent conflicts, with the Liberals gaining trust from the Romanian retired and the President losing it, polls are starting to show growing and decreasing popularity. According to Gallup, the popular trust Basescu enjoys has gone down from 63% last May (when the referendum was held) to 43% in July (after reaching 59% in June). 40% of the people questioned approve of the way Calin Popescu Tariceanu "uses his attributions as a PM of Romania" ( he got 21% in May, 25% in June). The same question asked about the President's conduct got a positive answer from 60%. As for vote intentions for the election of MEPs, the Democrats enjoy 41%, which means excellent, far from the prospects of making their own government after parliamentary elections. The Social-Democrat Party has got 20% and the National Liberal Party reaches 12%.
But there has also emerged a 'counter opinion poll' by the Public Policy Institute. The differences are big and they favor Basescu's side. A symptom that the competition is growing rougher. Therefore the present times are important because parties get repositioned before the electoral campaign and the vital target is the new government, what else? Unless the Democrats manage to keep the same score and gain majority, both the victory and the power will be on the side of the so-called 'anti-Basescu coalition', no matter how high the score the Democrats get by scrutiny and the President's popularity...

Ion Bogdan Lefter
Ziua joi 02 Iulie 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english