If it is true that for the time being the PSD (Social-Democrat Party) is urged to avoid early elections rather than provoke them, then it is also true that the party can't join the PD (Democrat Party) in an alliance. The Social-Democrats would this way assail their own electorate and lose the vulnerable electors. As for the Democrats, who have gone on demonizing the rival, such a combination would be really immoral. The idea of allowing the PD to rule is neither tempting to the PSD. As elections are approaching, the PD would take up the very practical habits again and try to coordinate polls by unfair means to serve their own interests. And it is also hard to assume that the PSD would be so naďve to make a minority government, in case Traian Basescu chose it by appointing a Social-Democrat PM, that is Mircea Geoana, after the government's collapse. Nevertheless, it is the most important parliamentary party that decides, despite such scenarios. If all these prove inconvenient to the PSD, is there a pattern for success ? If I give a positive answer, I have to take the readers inside the scenario on the 3rd Tariceanu government.
So far I haven't analyzed the last hypothesis, which can turn into the first: rough talks of the PSD, PNL (National Liberal Party), UDMR (Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania), PC (Conservative Party) and maybe PRM ("Greater Romania" Party) on the making of a national union government. Mind you that the PD and the PLD (Liberal-Democrat Party), the two presidential parties, are kicked out. Or the PSD, the PNL and the UDMR may establish a government to get parliamentary majority. Threatening to come up with bill against the government that would sweep the Liberals off, the PSD could insist on the making of a government dominated by this party's representatives, but still headed by Calin-Popescu Tariceanu. It would have some effect the PSD should consider. By taking over and appointing a puppet PM, the PSD could know how to decide on the costs of power in the hard times before elections. Before the 2008 parliamentary election the PSD would obviously try to blame failures on the Liberals and also to make use of the privileges emerging from power. They would bring lots of their own activists and adepts in the main layers of the public administration, both central and local, and they would continue with handling the budget and EU funds in such a way to favor the party and the communities the PSD controls. They would end up organizing the MEP, local and parliamentary elections so that the PSD would be at advantage. It would mean Mircea Geoana's party would take over the key ministries: Internal Affairs, Justice, finance and so on. This is something hard for the Liberals to refuse for, if their government is sacked, they will leave with a rather poor electoral score and get caught in the more and more aggressive presidential alliance. In such a case, the PLD may work like a true Liberal vacuum cleaner and the PSD would have no reason to spare Tariceanu's party. In fact, the Liberals would find themselves isolated on the political stage and it would be difficult to assume that the PRM, the UDMR and the PC would be willing to cooperate. Furthermore, President Basescu would triumphantly become a pain in Tariceanu's neck.
After all, who does the PSD fear most ? Traian Basescu. They must therefore be willing to agree to any solution meant to sack the 2nd Tariceanu government, except for the ones that let the head of state be free to play. One thing is for sure: after September 10 nothing will be like before.
Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua Duminica 19 August 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english
.jpg)
