Traian Basescu will have to release a decision that may make public opinion hot at once and have rather hard to predict effects on the precious thing he treasures most: electoral points. Will he support a project such as the autonomy of the Secui (Magyar-origin community in Transylvania) county or not ?
On the one hand, politician Basescu gave a very firm negative response to the idea of autonomy on ethnic criteria and therefore Romania has from the very beginning opposed the Ahtisaari plan on Kosovo. If you remember, to some people's stupor, Basescu said he had a plan of his own to find a solution to the Kosovo issue. But it didn't come out presently, as the full ignorance of Basescu's view and offer was also accompanied by multiple pressure from both the Americans and the Europeans, asking Romania to take distance from Russia's inflexible view. Our President was as silent as the grave, the government spoke up to say Romania's final view would be the EU view.
In February 2007 Traian Basescu was firm again, saying the referendum arranged by the National County of the Secui on autonomy was "illegal". He argued: "When they try to capitalize the outcome of this test, Romania will unhesitatingly apply the Constitution and Romanian laws". Right. Things seemed clear for good, since the President of Romania himself spoke up.
The problem is that, fearless as they are of President Basescu's opinions, the Secui transferred the issue to Brussels at once. In the Parliament of Europe, the issue of the Secui county's autonomy has already reached a political group's claim agenda. But I don't think Traian Basescu is impressed with what they say or do in Brussels, since he knows his electorate is forced by the media into showing much more interest in the hunting of the garbage piled close to Bucharest than in any EU community decision.
It is just that things have changed all of a sudden as there has emerged a possibility such as an agreement between the UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania) and the National Magyar Council, which may make bishop Tokes top the list of candidates for the election of MEPs in Romania and get him polls from a large number of Magyar community members. Unless Traian Basescu changes his mind suddenly and agrees to the Secui's autonomy, at European level bishop Laszlo Tokes may become the only adversary for our President to fear indeed. Laszlo Tokes has got knowledge of politics and international support, but, above all, his name is a political brand already and he has got into history already. And his voice will be heard in the first row of seats in the Parliament of Europe, as I don't think the Romanian Democrats' delegation will succeed with the attempt to get rid of the UDMR, in case Tokes heads the their delegation...
What will Basescu do in such a case ? As far as Kosovo is concerned, things are clear. He will have to be in keeping with the EU decision. He may surrender in the Secui issue as well, which will be described as a need to fit the European trend. Or on the contrary, he will stick to the initial view, remain a firm opponent of ethnic-based autonomy and deny the possibility to grant collective rights. The future of Romanian politics depends on this decision and on parties' views to a great extent, anyway. The debate on a new Constitution in Romania depends on it too.
Cristian Unteanu
Ziua Marti 14 August 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english
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