Before the storm

There is silence for the time being, but it is that silence before the storm. Democrats' bill against the government has ended up as ridiculously as it was born. Why am I claiming there will follow political storm that may turn into a real hurricane ?
The great game with Traian Basescu and Calin Popescu Tariceanu as competitors seems to have reached a break now. Although winning in the referendum after the humiliation he had suffered when suspended, the President has failed to make the government collapse with help from the PD (Democrat Party) and this group's bill against the government. He has also failed to bring a government to make him a president-player.
The PSD (Social-Democrat Party) is also unwilling to obey the standards set by the head of state. Mircea Geoana wouldn't be entrapped by supporting Democrats' bill, even if promised power. Still it doesn't mean that Tariceanu's minority government has got some honeymoon ahead. I have got all the reasons to assume that the Social-Democrats are sharpening their swards thoroughly. If they join the war, it may be the end of the Liberals. And in the meantime the President won't be in the standby in his deadly war against Tariceanu. He will be after making the government collapse, no matter in favor of whom. There are no more solutions Cotroceni Palace perceives as immoral. Any solution to eliminate the PNL (National Liberal Party) is moral. Therefore we should expect the top officials in the latter Palace and in the PSD to meet in an undeclared alliance, but with killing efficiency.
If these are right, we will get a minority government of the PSD, explicitly or just intuitively, within the scenarios plotted by both the PSD and Cotroceni Palace. This PSD government would replace the one in power, made up of members of the PNL and the UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania), due to implicit or rather explicit support from Presidency and also due to support from the PD. When may the final battle start ?
After the 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet got power due to support from 70% of the MPs and with the substantial contribution of the PSD and after the Democrats' bill against the government has been dismissed, Mircea Geoana's party needs not only time to change attitude and take action against the government the party supported, but also strong arguments or at least credible pretexts. It makes me estimate that the PSD would be testing the ground for at least 10 days without making any spectacular move. But when may the PSD be taking action ? Most likely when the European Commission releases the report on Romania and there is clue for it. Tariceanu is to go to the Parliament shortly before June 27 to answer questions on the lack of support for some PSD legislative projects to reach the government. If the report on Romania is unfavorable or so and so, the psychological preparation for the opening of procedures to dismiss the government has been made. But until then ?
In the next 10 days we will see incredibily aggressive offensives against the government coordinated by the very President and strongly supported by the PD, not at all discouraged because the bill was dismissed. Public opinion will hear a full list of central administration's failures, many of them inspired by the press, ZIUA included. But there will also be an invented list of failures. President Basescu's visceral hatred will have something to say. I can bet on this scenario, for the action it describes will start right now.

by Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua http://www.ziua.net/english