Postponed final

The government, that is the winner in the history of bills against the government, gets nothings, whereas the losers, that is the President, the PD (Democrat Party) and the PSD (Social-Democrat Party), are trying hard to blame the failure on each other. The assault against the Liberals isn't over yet. The 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet can still be shaken at least twice before the mandate is up. What is next ?
While Mircea Geoana's credibility as a leader is harmed, the PSD may still be at advantage due to the defeat of the bill. It is so because public opinion has finally learned that the left, represented by the most important parliamentary party, has decided to use attributions and behave like a true opposition party. The this time serious attempt to overthrow the government is an argument for those longing for a change to head the PSD in elections. Such an advantage, paradoxically emerging from defeat, would have been even greater had Mircea Geoana not committed the mistake of involving his party in an alliance with the PD and with President Traian Basescu, an alliance which is abnormal. The distance between the Socialists and the Conservatives is maximum, at least in ideology terms. Unless everything is a joke and unless what we see is the show on the return to the mother ship, that is the Front for National Salvation.
There is another strange element. Had the bill passed, the great loser wouldn't have been the PNL (National Liberal Party), who would have got a good chance to get back their electorate from the opposition, but the PSD, who would have missed the time fit for an ascent that only a party in the opposition can get when its adversaries' mandate is over. The great winner wouldn't have been the PSD, but Traian Basescu. He would have helped the PD get power and leave both the Socialists and the Liberals behind.
Given such arguments, at the end of this bill soap opera Mircea Geoana looks discredited. His adversaries can now regroup and wait to proceed to the final offensive after the election of MEPs, in case the PSD's score is poor, which is likely. He has thus weakened the Liberals even more. He has consolidated the belief of his own electorate that to get power again may not be such a far away objective. But the written alliance with the PSD may be a weak point. The PD has demonized the Socialist left much too much. Collaboration with the PSD, whether in power, as written in the Protocol, or in the opposition, can't avoid negative effects and splits among the adepts. The PD leaders have once again proved their lack of moral sense.
But the President keeps silent. Except for offending a female journalist yesterday, he is refraining from statements on the failure of the bill, although he was extremely active on it. Why is Traian Basescu silent ? Out of political instinct. He is aware that, if he speaks up now, many things will be blamed on him. But if he does nothing, it is Mircea Geoana who will be blamed instead.
The 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet and the PNL in particular are in great difficulty. If they can be victorious when taking responsibility for the uninominal vote law to come into force in 2012 it is not known. It is neither known whether the budget passed or not.
There are at least two circumstances under which the 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet may collapse. If will happen unless the Liberals start thinking about a majority 3rd Tariceanu government. It would be achieved not due to the Liberals' president, because he has lost his call for negotiations. If such majority is established with the PSD, then Mircea Geoana shouldn't attend the talks. For all these reasons I think the new denouement will be not before, but after the election of MEPs.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua friday 5 october 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english