Two on the scaffold

Two top personalities will fall for two different reasons, both of them related to the struggle for power. Mircea Geoana and Calin-Popescu Tariceanu are these personalities. The first will lose leadership over the PSD (Social-Democrat Party) either after the bill against the government fails or because of his party's poor score in the election of MEPs. As for Calin-Popescu Tariceanu, he will lose his presidency over the PNL (National Liberal Party), even if he stays a PM. The reasons for it is his stubbornness, his obstinate refusal to make a long-term pact with the Socialist left.
Seemingly, Traian Basescu is making the rules again. More or less secretly, he is meeting with Mircea Geoana to plot the collapse of the 2nd Tariceanu government and either the establishing of a Democrat government or early elections. The PD (Democrat Party) has said it firmly many a time that they will have no collaboration whatsoever with the PD. Therefore a majority government to carry out the 4-year legislative government is out of question. If the 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet collapses, the Parliament will either accept a minority government of the PD and the PLD (Liberal Democrat Party), which is unlikely, because parties wouldn't join Traian Basescu's game and allow him to do what he pleases. Or the Parliament sticks to the other scenario, so far ceaselessly dismissed: the early elections, initiated by the same Traian Basescu. In order to put some gas on the fire the head of state is inciting the DNA (National Anti-Corruption Department) and the Prosecutor's Office too to a last assault. It will be the end of their credibility, but it will be efficient in blackmailing. Criminal cases are being opened against some politicians opposing the plans plotted in Cotroceni Palace. It is a focused attempt to make the government lose credibility and weaken the opposition Mircea Geoana is faced with in the PSD because of his mumbling dialogue with Traian Basescu. The latter lacks any foreign credibility, but he is extremely popular with people lacking basic education and knowledge of politics.
I have emphasized the President seems to be making the rules. Here is why. The idea is that for multiple reasons, some generous and ethical, others petty, the Parliament will avoid any scenario that may shorten the mandate and lead to early elections. Since politicians perceive Traian Basescu as public enemy no. 1, it is reasonable that the Parliament should struggle to avoid the second scenario considered by Cotroceni Palace: a minority PD-PLD government to grant Traian Basescu with unlimited powers.
Collaboration with the PSD would be suicide for both sides. Therefore the survival of the 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet is the only hypothesis left. Today's political crisis is fueled by three main leaders: Traian Basescu and we know what he pursues, Mircea Geoana, pushed from inside the party and lured towards suicide from Cotroceni Palace, and Calin-Popescu Tariceanu. The latter is obstinately dismissing the only way he can save his party on medium and long term.
Those who pushed MirceaGeona into the lethal scenario of the bill, which will obviously be dismissed, will soon do away with him from the leadership over the PSD.
As a PM, Calin-Popescu Tariceanu will continue in the recovery ward connected to the oxygen devices. But he will lose leadership over the party, in order to help the PNL survive in the future, and he will make room for a wing willing to make a left center alliance to open Liberals' access to power after 2008. If I am right, Traian Basescu will head failure.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua Vineri 21 Septembrie 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english