The deadly shift

Traian Basescu has got a solution that may turn into a lethal weapon for his political adversary, given the approaching elections. It consists in a surprising shift in the President-government relations. Traian Basescu can practically announce that he is no longer joining the electoral confrontation for the 2009 presidential elections because of striking back to the leadership over a coalition made up of the PD (Democrat Party) and the PLD (Liberal Democrat Party) and aspiring to the PM job, whereas presidency would go to Theodor Stolojan. Not only that such a solution would really confuse the other parties, but it would also be lethal to them due to the final score. This may provide comfortable majority to the present presidential coalition and reliable political support to the future government. Not last, it may be Traian Basescu's chance to get himself reloaded for his second mandate as President, in 2014. Let's look into this scenario.
A real problem that Traian Basescu hasn't solved in a satisfying manner is the relations between the PD and the PLD, given a possible presidential coalition. The so-called 'Popeye the sailor' effect has caused the drawback. By obstinately and constantly playing the opposing party and by being most critical at the government, the PD has managed to erase the memory of a confused electorate. Electors have thus forgotten about the long time this party was in power. And the referendum on the suspension of the President, so poorly approached by parliamentary parties, did but bring the PD more and more points so that the party tops polls right now. The presidential group has eaten so much spinach that the leaders are now sure of success. Some play financial tricks disregarding the law, with Adriean Videanu as most visible example. Because their time has come or because they fancy it has come, the Democrats have refused to share the future prey with the PLD. The latter is a newly made party of Liberal dissidents fully obedient to Cotroceni Palace. They don't have much of an electoral call and this is why their score in polls is rather poor. But there are two reasons why Traian Basescu needs the PLD like he needs air. He must prove the electorate that he still is the outstanding representative of a rightwing coalition, not of a single party. He can thus turn the PLD in a party attracting the Liberals and the Liberal electorate who may split with Tariceanu's Liberals in time. The top electoral positions must be distributed fairly in order to achieve such a coalition. This claim faces the tenacity of some top PD members, ready to rebel against Traian Basescu.
Given these, the solution considered in the Cotroceni political lab, the second great shift between Traian Basescu and Theodor Stolojan, is not only spectacular and surprising, but also realistic. It is a play typical of Traian Basescu. If he gets to head the PD again, Traian Basescu will manage to restore discipline in his party, do away with the rebels and those who drew criminal cases for themselves and be a firm ruler, persuading the party into rejecting the idea of sharing work and success with the PLD. The pride of the PLD would be satisfied with a candidate to Presidency in the person of Theodor Stolojan. The party could thus gain more strength for the electoral competition, while relying on the Basescu engine and on a much more cordial PD.
Traian Basescu may thus prove to public opinion that he could not be a president-player, but that he could promise to become a very active PM at harmonious terms with the head of state. As they are fed-up with so much scandal, Romanians may let themselves entrapped again. But there is one obstacle against this scenario: Traian Basescu may resign beforehand.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua Sambata 15 Septembrie 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english