PSD up to Basescu

Yesterday Mircea Geoana got unbound in the last minute and he announced the death sentence for the 2nd Tariceanu Cabinet by September 10, claiming the government's inefficiency was killing to national interest and that the government was to be blamed for Romanians' impossibility to enjoy the advantages of economy growth, a situation lasting seven years. According to the leader, the decision of the PSD (Social-Democrat Party) members was unanimous. In fact, the PSD has no longer a choice. Double language may soon prove suicide. What is next? Either Mircea Geoana proceeds to a bluff, under terrible pressure from the electorate and the PSD branches, which means the PSD MPs won't be doing their best to overthrow the government. Or the Parliament passes the bill against the government. In such case, the Liberal government is history. But this is how Geoana will be up to Basescu.
The truth is that the PSD leader is under assail by his own party because the PSD is losing electorate, at least this is what opinion polls are showing. But in order to get power again the PSD needs a minimum of 30% from the total of polls in the parliamentary elections. And the PSD will have to pass the local election test in order to get the 30%. Unless the Social-Democrats win local elections and have enough power in the territory early next year, it is hard to assume that the party will win the parliamentary elections due in the autumn of 2008.
And the election of MEPs in Romania is to take place in the meantime. Even if this is not decisive for the domestic political dispute, it is an important clue about various parties' force. The outcome of it may effect in advantage or psychological disadvantage and have consequences over the vulnerable electorate. The explanation to this bizarre phenomenon of a party in the opposition losing points instead of gaining points in the second term of the present electoral cycle ? It is the outcome of a dramatic process: the PSD has been in the opposition since December 2004, but it is perceived rather as an ally of the Tariceanu governments because of flirting with the Liberals. The PD (Democrat Party), until recently in alliance with the PNL (National Liberal Party), looks like a more authentic opposition party. It was the same even when the PD was in power. Traian Basescu is still perceived as leader of this party rather than a head of state. And his offensive against the Liberals has been ceaseless. This game played for the sake of the image costs the Social-Democrats votes. Since the Democrats have proclaimed themselves a right people's party overnight, the PSD, finally the only left party, may find it easy to win the electoral confrontations in 2008 and take over again. Unless so, the PSD will face disaster or the beginning of the end, especially that this party is keener than all the other parties together on the privileges of power.
Given these, the local PSD leaders have started greater and greater pressure on Mircea Geoana, forcing him into changing attitude, dropping double language and proceeding to real opposition. It can only effect in the overthrowing of the government. It is this top to bottom response on which depend the games for power at high level in the PSD. The central barons are relying on the repositioning of the main centres within the party, even for passing the political baton from one hand to the other.
Now, if the PSD is truly determined to overthrow the Tariceanu government, the party will pay a lot for the naivete of having trusted changing political partners when to dismiss Basescu was the issue at stake. And the PSD didn't mobilize their electorate to a great extent. Basescu may cease to be a president-spectator and tourist to Covasna and Harghita and turn into a president-player due to the very PSD, since it is only the head of state who may appoint a new PM.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu
Ziua Miercuri 15 August 2007 http://www.ziua.net/english